Daily Model Report

Friday, March 13, 2026

Chalk runs an eight-model ensemble on live NCAA basketball and NBA games. When the model disagrees with the live halftime market, a signal fires. This page is every signal from Friday, March 13, 2026 and how each game settled.

All35 CBB35 NBA0

Signals Watched

8 actionable, 27 no-bet

Bet Record

5-3

62.5% ATS

Season Record

179-165

since 2025-11-01

Season ATS

52%

344 settled

▸ Most signals don't meet the bet threshold. We publish them all anyway — the full ledger, not the highlight reel.

Signals (35)

CBBAbilene Christian WildcatsACU 28@Utah Tech TrailblazersUTU 46

NO BET

edge 13.1 pts

CBBTulane Green WaveTULN 20@Charlotte 49ersCLT 18

NO BET

edge 12.1 pts

no line data

CBBMiami HurricanesMIA 23@Virginia CavaliersUVA 38

NO BET

edge 11.1 pts

CBBGeorge Washington RevolutionariesGW 48@Saint Louis BillikensSLU 34

WIN

edge 6.6 pts

CBBNorth Texas Mean GreenUNT 36@Tulsa Golden HurricaneTLSA 25

WIN

edge 5.6 pts

no line data

CBBGeorgetown HoyasGTWN 35@Villanova WildcatsVILL 31

NO BET

edge 5.1 pts

no line data

CBBUC Davis AggiesUCD 26@Cal State Fullerton TitansCSUF 38

NO BET

edge 4.7 pts

CBBTennessee VolunteersTENN 31@Vanderbilt CommodoresVAN 31

NO BET

edge 3.9 pts

CBBOhio State BuckeyesOSU 35@Michigan WolverinesMICH 39

NO BET

edge 3.7 pts

CBBKennesaw State OwlsKENN 31@Sam Houston BearkatsSHSU 37

NO BET

edge 3.6 pts

CBBLoyola Chicago RamblersLUC 24@Davidson WildcatsDAV 19

NO BET

edge 3.1 pts

CBBMissouri State BearsMOST 27@Louisiana Tech BulldogsLT 30

NO BET

edge 3.0 pts

CBBColorado State RamsCSU 27@San Diego State AztecsSDSU 39

NO BET

edge 2.7 pts

CBBClemson TigersCLEM 39@North Carolina Tar HeelsUNC 31

WIN

edge 2.4 pts

CBBOklahoma SoonersOU 49@Texas A&M AggiesTA&M 27

LOSS

edge 2.2 pts

no line data

CBBMaryland Eastern Shore HawksUMES 40@North Carolina Central EaglesNCCU 34

WIN

edge 2.1 pts

CBBTCU Horned FrogsTCU 34@Kansas JayhawksKU 31

NO BET

edge 2.1 pts

CBBIowa State CyclonesISU 43@Arizona WildcatsARIZ 37

WIN

edge 1.9 pts

CBBDuquesne DukesDUQ 29@VCU RamsVCU 39

NO BET

edge 1.6 pts

CBBPrairie View A&M PanthersPV 36@Alabama A&M BulldogsAAMU 21

LOSS

edge 1.6 pts

CBBRutgers Scarlet KnightsRUTG 24@UCLA BruinsUCLA 30

NO BET

edge 1.4 pts

CBBKentucky WildcatsUK 28@Florida GatorsFLA 37

NO BET

edge 1.4 pts

CBBSt. Bonaventure BonniesSBU 27@Dayton FlyersDAY 30

NO BET

edge 1.0 pts

CBBSouth Carolina State BulldogsSCST 24@Howard BisonHOW 38

NO BET

edge 1.0 pts

CBBKennesaw State OwlsKENN 46@Western Kentucky HilltoppersWKU 41

NO BET

edge 0.9 pts

CBBUC San Diego TritonsUCSD 36@Cal State Northridge MatadorsCSUN 32

NO BET

edge 0.9 pts

no line data

CBBSouthern Utah ThunderbirdsSUU 24@UT Arlington MavericksUTA 29

NO BET

edge 0.6 pts

no line data

CBBSeton Hall PiratesHALL 30@St. John's Red StormSJU 38

NO BET

edge 0.6 pts

CBBPurdue BoilermakersPUR 41@Nebraska CornhuskersNEB 28

LOSS

edge 0.4 pts

CBBWisconsin BadgersWIS 30@Illinois Fighting IlliniILL 36

NO BET

edge 0.4 pts

CBBCharlotte 49ersCLT 31@UAB BlazersUAB 33

NO BET

edge 0.1 pts

CBBArkansas-Pine Bluff Golden LionsUAPB 37@Southern JaguarsSOU 39

NO BET

edge 0.1 pts

CBBFlorida Atlantic OwlsFAU 30@North Texas Mean GreenUNT 34

NO BET

edge 0.0 pts

no line data

CBBSan José State SpartansSJSU 36@New Mexico LobosUNM 43

NO BET

edge 0.0 pts

no line data

CBBMassachusetts MinutemenMASS 34@Toledo RocketsTOL 43

NO BET

edge 0.0 pts

no line data

Methodology

Signals Watched counts every game where the multi-model ensemble fired at halftime. Bet Record counts only the subset where the model produced an actionable signal that settled. Most signals are non-actionable — the model fires but doesn't reach the threshold to act.

Lines shown are the live 2H line captured from market data at halftime. Sparklines trace how that line moved through the second half. Some signals fire without a captured line (market coverage gap, late-night games) and are marked NO LINE — they can't be settled without a spread to compare against.

Aggregate backtest figures published elsewhere use historical opening market lines with a slippage adjustment. The two line sources differ slightly in some game contexts, so the daily report numbers won't precisely match headline backtest stats. Both are real measurements of different things: the live line shows what the model acted on in real time; the opening line shows the multi-season out-of-sample average.

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