73.0% against the spread. Four seasons. 2,400+ games.

Chalk's second-half models identify when the market misprices home teams at halftime. Pick the plan that fits how you bet.

Recommended

Pro

The Edge, Delivered

$149/mo

$4.97/day during the season

Our backtested target pattern (73.0% ATS), delivered to you via SMS at halftime. Full signal dashboard, cover dynamics, fair cashout, hedge calculator. No configuration needed — we did the research.

  • Target pattern alerts — 73.0% ATS, SMS at halftime
  • Full signal dashboard (regime, magnitude, conference tier)
  • Cover Dynamics with position tracking
  • Fair cash-out valuation
  • Hedge calculator
  • Calibrated 68% and 95% confidence intervals
  • 30-day game history
  • 100 AI insights/month
Signal Dashboard
DUKE 38@UNC 28TRAIL 6-15BEAR +3.8P4
M:+2.3L:-1.5Div:-3.8

Syndicate

Build Your Own Edge

$349/mo

For betting groups and quantitative bettors

Everything in Pro. Plus Strategy Lab to partition, backtest, and deploy your own filters. Custom SMS triggers. API access. Options-style Greeks. Build the strategies. We provide the data.

  • Everything in Pro
  • Strategy Lab — partition, backtest, deploy
  • Filter Builder with 4-season backtesting
  • Custom SMS triggers on your strategies
  • Options-style Greeks (θ, Δ, Γ)
  • API access (5,000 req/day)
  • Unlimited historical access
  • Unlimited AI insights
  • Dedicated support
Strategy Lab
{
"strategy": "trailing_p4_bearish"
"backtest": 4 seasons
"ats_rate": 73.0%
"sms_trigger": true
"greeks": { θ, Δ, Γ }
}

The math on the edge

At -110 odds, $100/game, trailing regime (~200 bets/season)

StrategyWin RateEV/BetSeason ProfitPro Cost
Trailing regime (all)58.4%+$10.55$2,110$1,341
Target pattern (P4/Maj + trailing + bearish)73.0%+$31.24$2,499$1,341
Target pattern at $250/game73.0%+$78.10$6,248$1,341
Pro costs $1,341/season (9 × $149). At $100/game, the trailing strategy alone generates $2,110 in expected value. Pro costs less than 65% of the edge it identifies.

Hypothetical illustration based on historical out-of-sample results (2022-26). Past performance does not guarantee future results. All figures assume -110 odds and do not account for individual bankroll, varying bet sizes, or execution. Any sports wagering is inherently risky and undertaken at your own risk.

73.0%
ATS on target pattern
4 seasons, out-of-sample
58.4%
ATS trailing regime
Slippage-adjusted
+34%
ROI on target bets
Power4/Major + trailing
2,400+
Games validated
CBB 2022-2026
Real-time
Prediction updates
During live games
3
Independent models
Neural + Statistical + Volatility

What the alternatives cost

No other consumer tool combines in-game predictions, calibrated CIs, model-vs-market signals, and backtested strategy.

API access: Chalk Syndicate $349/mo · Unabated API $3,000/mo

ToolPrice
Chalk Pro$149/mo
ShotQuality Premium$250/mo
Unabated Premium$199/mo
OddsJam Gold$200/mo
Action Network PRO$60/mo
ShotQuality Standard$50/mo
KenPom$25/yr

Frequently Asked Questions

Read how we validate: 4 seasons, slippage-adjusted, out-of-sample
73.0%

against the spread. Four seasons. Out-of-sample.

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