Daily Model Report

Thursday, March 12, 2026

Chalk runs an eight-model ensemble on live NCAA basketball and NBA games. When the model disagrees with the live halftime market, a signal fires. This page is every signal from Thursday, March 12, 2026 and how each game settled.

All9 CBB0 NBA9

Signals Watched

1 actionable, 8 no-bet

Bet Record

0-1

0% ATS

Season Record

69-61

since 2025-11-01

Season ATS

53.1%

130 settled

Published edges today

NBA Chalk Edge

nba

0-1

1 matched

▸ Most signals don't meet the bet threshold. We publish them all anyway — the full ledger, not the highlight reel.

Signals (9)

NBACharlotte HornetsCHA 59@Sacramento KingsSAC 62

NO BET

edge 12.9 pts

NBANew York KnicksNY 56@Utah JazzUTAH 65

NO BET

edge 11.0 pts

NBAPhoenix SunsPHX 67@Indiana PacersIND 61

LOSS

edge 6.4 pts

NBAWashington WizardsWSH 56@Orlando MagicORL 63

NO BET

edge 6.0 pts

NBAPhiladelphia 76ersPHI 60@Detroit PistonsDET 69

NO BET

edge 6.0 pts

NBACleveland CavaliersCLE 62@Orlando MagicORL 62

NO BET

edge 3.9 pts

NBAHouston RocketsHOU 47@Denver NuggetsDEN 53

NO BET

edge 3.0 pts

NBAMinnesota TimberwolvesMIN 65@LA ClippersLAC 74

NO BET

edge 2.0 pts

no line data

NBAToronto RaptorsTOR 58@New Orleans PelicansNO 60

NO BET

edge 1.9 pts

Methodology

Signals Watched counts every game where the multi-model ensemble fired at halftime. Bet Record counts only the subset where the model produced an actionable signal that settled. Most signals are non-actionable — the model fires but doesn't reach the threshold to act.

Lines shown are the live 2H line captured from market data at halftime. Sparklines trace how that line moved through the second half. Some signals fire without a captured line (market coverage gap, late-night games) and are marked NO LINE — they can't be settled without a spread to compare against.

Aggregate backtest figures published elsewhere use historical opening market lines with a slippage adjustment. The two line sources differ slightly in some game contexts, so the daily report numbers won't precisely match headline backtest stats. Both are real measurements of different things: the live line shows what the model acted on in real time; the opening line shows the multi-season out-of-sample average.

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