Daily Model Report

Saturday, April 25, 2026

Chalk runs an eight-model ensemble on live NCAA basketball and NBA games. When the model disagrees with the live halftime market, a signal fires. This page is every signal from Saturday, April 25, 2026 and how each game settled.

All3 CBB0 NBA3

Signals Watched

2 actionable, 1 no-bet

Bet Record

—

2 settling

Season Record

248-226

since 2025-11-01

Season ATS

52.3%

474 settled

Published edges today

NBA Chalk Edge

nba

1 matched

1 matched1 in-flight

▸ Most signals don't meet the bet threshold. We publish them all anyway — the full ledger, not the highlight reel.

Signals (3)

NBABoston CelticsBOS 54@Philadelphia 76ersPHI 47

SETTLING

edge 6.5 pts

no line data

NBALos Angeles LakersLAL 63@Houston RocketsHOU 52

SETTLING

edge 3.6 pts

no line data

NBASan Antonio SpursSA 59@Portland Trail BlazersPOR 65

NO BET

edge 2.0 pts

no line data

Methodology

Signals Watched counts every game where the multi-model ensemble fired at halftime. Bet Record counts only the subset where the model produced an actionable signal that settled. Most signals are non-actionable — the model fires but doesn't reach the threshold to act.

Lines shown are the live 2H line captured from market data at halftime. Sparklines trace how that line moved through the second half. Some signals fire without a captured line (market coverage gap, late-night games) and are marked NO LINE — they can't be settled without a spread to compare against.

Aggregate backtest figures published elsewhere use historical opening market lines with a slippage adjustment. The two line sources differ slightly in some game contexts, so the daily report numbers won't precisely match headline backtest stats. Both are real measurements of different things: the live line shows what the model acted on in real time; the opening line shows the multi-season out-of-sample average.

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