Daily Model Report

Thursday, April 16, 2026

Chalk runs an eight-model ensemble on live NCAA basketball and NBA games. When the model disagrees with the live halftime market, a signal fires. This page is every signal from Thursday, April 16, 2026 and how each game settled.

All2 CBB0 NBA2

Signals Watched

2 no-bet

Bet Record

—

no bets

Season Record

245-227

since 2025-11-01

Season ATS

51.9%

472 settled

▸ Most signals don't meet the bet threshold. We publish them all anyway — the full ledger, not the highlight reel.

Signals (2)

NBAGolden State WarriorsGS 22@LA ClippersLAC 31

NO BET

edge 4.5 pts

no line data

NBAOrlando MagicORL 55@Philadelphia 76ersPHI 59

NO BET

edge 1.0 pts

Methodology

Signals Watched counts every game where the multi-model ensemble fired at halftime. Bet Record counts only the subset where the model produced an actionable signal that settled. Most signals are non-actionable — the model fires but doesn't reach the threshold to act.

Lines shown are the live 2H line captured from Smarkets at halftime. Sparklines trace how that line moved through the second half. Some signals fire without a captured line (exchange coverage gap, late-night games) and are marked NO LINE — they can't be settled without a spread to compare against.

Aggregate backtest figures published elsewhere use Smarkets historical opening lines with a slippage adjustment. The two line sources differ slightly in some game contexts, so the daily report numbers won't precisely match headline backtest stats. Both are real measurements of different things: the live line shows what the model acted on in real time; the opening line shows the multi-season out-of-sample average.

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