Daily Model Report

Sunday, April 5, 2026

Chalk runs an eight-model ensemble on live NCAA basketball and NBA games. When the model disagrees with the live halftime market, a signal fires. This page is every signal from Sunday, April 5, 2026 and how each game settled.

All3 CBB3 NBA0

Signals Watched

1 actionable, 2 no-bet

Bet Record

0-1

0% ATS

Season Record

177-167

since 2025-11-01

Season ATS

51.5%

344 settled

▸ Most signals don't meet the bet threshold. We publish them all anyway — the full ledger, not the highlight reel.

Signals (3)

CBBIllinois Fighting IlliniILL 29@UConn HuskiesCONN 37

NO BET

edge 6.6 pts

no line data

CBBMichigan WolverinesMICH 48@Arizona WildcatsARIZ 32

LOSS

edge 2.9 pts

CBBOklahoma SoonersOU 41@West Virginia MountaineersWVU 37

NO BET

edge 0.0 pts

no line data

Methodology

Signals Watched counts every game where the multi-model ensemble fired at halftime. Bet Record counts only the subset where the model produced an actionable signal that settled. Most signals are non-actionable — the model fires but doesn't reach the threshold to act.

Lines shown are the live 2H line captured from Smarkets at halftime. Sparklines trace how that line moved through the second half. Some signals fire without a captured line (exchange coverage gap, late-night games) and are marked NO LINE — they can't be settled without a spread to compare against.

Aggregate backtest figures published elsewhere use Smarkets historical opening lines with a slippage adjustment. The two line sources differ slightly in some game contexts, so the daily report numbers won't precisely match headline backtest stats. Both are real measurements of different things: the live line shows what the model acted on in real time; the opening line shows the multi-season out-of-sample average.

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